CYCLESCOPE · VALUATION

NUPL

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss shows how much of Bitcoin network value represents aggregate unrealized holder profit or loss.

WHAT IT MEASURES

Paper profit across the network

NUPL compares Bitcoin's current market value with realized capitalization. A positive reading indicates aggregate unrealized profit; a negative reading indicates aggregate loss.

HOW IT IS CALCULATED

NUPL formula

(Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ Market Cap

The result is a ratio or percentage. A 31% reading means roughly 31% of market value represents unrealized profit under this model.

HOW TO INTERPRET

NUPL sentiment zones

< 0%Capitulation: the network is in aggregate unrealized loss.
0–25%Hope and fear: profit is limited and the market remains fragile.
25–50%Optimism: profit is growing but remains far from historical euphoria.
50–75%Belief and greed: participants hold substantial paper profit.
≥ 75%Euphoria: historically elevated cycle-top risk.

HOW TO USE IT

Watch transitions between zones

Direction matters alongside level. Leaving capitulation can confirm recovery, while reversing from euphoria with old-coin distribution strengthens top risk.

LIMITATION

NUPL does not reveal who is selling

Aggregate network profit does not describe individual holder cohorts. Confirm it with long- and short-term-holder metrics.

This material is for market research and is not investment advice.