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LOOK CRYPTO · DATA PIPELINE

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CYCLESCOPE · VALUATION

Terminal Price

A long-term on-chain upper boundary model for Bitcoin. The distance between current BTC price and the model matters more than the boundary alone.

WHAT IT MEASURES

A potential cycle-top boundary

Terminal Price links Bitcoin's price to the economic value of coins moved on-chain. Historically, convergence with the model occurred near major cyclical tops.

HOW IT IS CALCULATED

An on-chain old-coin movement model

Transferred Price and Coin Days Destroyed → Terminal Price

The provider derives the model from transfer value and the age of spent coins. LOOK CRYPTO receives the boundary and calculates current BTC price as a percentage of it.

HOW TO INTERPRET

BTC distance to Terminal Price

  • < 75%Price is materially below the model; no standalone top signal.
  • 75–90%Bitcoin is approaching the boundary but risk is not yet extreme.
  • 90–100%Elevated cycle-top risk territory.
  • ≥ 100%Price has reached or exceeded the model boundary.
HOW TO USE IT

Read the ratio, not only the dollar value

Terminal Price changes over time. A $97,000 value means little without current BTC price, so CycleScope continuously displays convergence as a percentage.

LIMITATION

The model is not a price target

The boundary is based on historical network behavior and does not guarantee a future top. Confirm it with MVRV, NUPL, holder behavior and demand.

Other valuation indicators

This material is for market research and is not investment advice.