CYCLESCOPE · VALUATION

STH-MVRV

Shows whether recent Bitcoin buyers sit above or below aggregate cost basis and how large their unrealized profit is.

WHAT IT MEASURES

The position of recent buyers

STH-MVRV covers only short-term holders. Above 1, this cohort is in aggregate profit; below 1, it sits below realized cost basis.

HOW IT IS CALCULATED

STH-MVRV formula

STH Market Value ÷ STH Realized Value

The on-chain provider classifies coins by age and calculates market and realized value for the short-term-holder cohort.

HOW TO INTERPRET

STH cost basis and stress

< 0.85×Deep unrealized loss and elevated stress among recent buyers.
0.85–1×The cohort is below aggregate cost basis.
1–1.5×Ordinary profit above cost basis without extreme overheating.
≥ 1.5×Elevated unrealized profit and selling risk.

HOW TO USE IT

1× is an important boundary

Recovering above 1× after a deep drawdown can indicate renewed confidence. Sustained readings well above 1× together with NUPL euphoria raise profit-taking risk.

LIMITATION

Cohorts depend on methodology

The provider defines the short-term-holder age boundary. Do not use STH-MVRV without trend and demand context.

This material is for market research and is not investment advice.