Quantum Computing Concerns Stall Institutional Bitcoin Investments, Says Stacks Founder

Muneeb Ali told Cointelegraph’s Chain Reaction podcast that Bitcoin’s growth is currently capped due to the uncertainty surrounding quantum computing risks. He noted that cautious institutional investors might delay significant Bitcoin acquisitions until developers present a credible plan for transitioning to quantum-resistant security measures.

Stacks operates as a layer-2 network built on Bitcoin, enabling smart contracts and decentralized applications. Ali co-founded Stacks, which adopts Bitcoin as its fundamental settlement layer, aiming to enhance Bitcoin’s functionalities.

Ali cautioned that if significant advancements towards quantum-resistant security are not achieved by 2028, Bitcoin could face heightened risks. He explained that implementing upgrades is a lengthy process often taking years, and additional time is required for users to transfer assets to secure new addresses.

Referencing guidance from the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Ali suggested 2030 as a target year for achieving quantum-resistant security for Bitcoin. He added that rapid advancements in artificial intelligence might accelerate quantum computer development, potentially moving this target up to 2029.

Ali acknowledged that some Bitcoin enthusiasts view the quantum computing threat as distant or exaggerated. However, he warned that differing opinions on the urgency of the threat could erode investor confidence, especially in the absence of a trustworthy upgrade timeline.

## Debates Over Bitcoin’s Quantum Security

Despite his concerns, Ali believes that a powerful quantum computer capable of attacking Bitcoin would more likely be developed in a prominent research lab rather than by unknown malicious actors. He suggested that major tech companies like Google or Microsoft would be deterred from exploiting such technology due to potential legal consequences.

Ali pointed out that a quantum threat to Bitcoin would have repercussions across the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, affecting even projects with their own defensive mechanisms. He stated, “If Bitcoin is impacted, everyone else down the line suffers.”

Developers are actively seeking solutions to defend Bitcoin against quantum attacks. In September, StarkWare revealed that their researchers managed to reduce the estimated computational effort needed to prepare an experimental quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction by 79%, following a week-long optimization challenge.

This approach does not necessitate changes to Bitcoin’s consensus rules. However, the improved efficiency has only been shown in benchmark settings. StarkWare describes this technology as an emergency option and continues to advocate for a fundamental protocol upgrade as a sustainable long-term fix.

Despite ongoing debates, the establishment of a clear, credible roadmap to tackle quantum-related security is crucial to restoring confidence among institutional investors and safeguarding the future of Bitcoin.

Ali’s insights underline the importance of proactive development and transparent communication within the Bitcoin community to ensure resilience against emerging quantum threats.