CYCLESCOPE · HOLDER BEHAVIOR
1Y+ HODL Wave
The percentage of Bitcoin supply that has not moved on-chain for at least one year. Its direction helps reveal supply aging or old-coin reactivation.
The share of supply older than one year
HODL Waves group supply by time since its last on-chain movement. This metric combines bands that have remained unmoved for at least one year.
Old supply divided by total supply
BTC unmoved ≥ 1 year ÷ circulating BTC supply × 100%LOOK CRYPTO also compares the share with its level 30 days earlier and reports the change in percentage points.
Direction matters more than a magic number
- Rising shareMore supply ages into the 1Y+ band, consistent with holding and accumulation.
- Falling sharePreviously dormant coins move again, indicating possible reactivation or distribution.
- High levelA large share remains old and relatively illiquid, but the level alone does not call a top.
Confirm with spending behavior
A falling HODL Wave is more meaningful alongside rising CDD, positive LTH-SOPR and negative LTH Net Position Change.
Dormancy is not always conviction
Old cohorts can include lost coins, custody reserves and internal structures. A falling share does not prove exchange selling.
This material is for market research and is not investment advice.