CYCLESCOPE · LEVERAGE
Futures Basis
The annualized premium or discount of a quarterly Bitcoin futures contract to spot. It indicates the price of dated bullish or defensive positioning.
The price of dated futures
Positive basis means futures trade above spot—contango. Negative basis means a discount to spot—backwardation.
Premium annualized
((Futures ÷ spot) − 1) × 365 ÷ days to expiry × 100%The page uses the Binance Futures current-quarter contract.
Both extremes carry risk
- < 0%Backwardation, often associated with stress or defensive demand.
- 0–10%Ordinary contango and moderate carry demand.
- 10–20%Elevated bullish leverage.
- > 20%Historically hot carry; confirm with funding and OI.
Compare like maturities
Basis naturally converges toward expiry. Contract rolls should be considered when reading changes over time.
The bands are contextual
Basis depends on tenor, venue, borrowing costs and arbitrage access. It cannot identify a cycle top on its own.
This material is for market research and is not investment advice.