What the chart shows
The colored zones use a regression of ln(price) on ln(days since Bitcoin launched). The gold Realized Price line tracks aggregate network cost basis, while verticals mark past halvings and the estimated next one. CVDD and Terminal Price are available as an optional paired layer.
How to interpret it
Channel position describes long-run deviation from the power-law trend. Realized Price and CVDD help read the lower cycle, Terminal Price and Pi Cycle the upper cycle, while MA200D and MA200W describe trend structure. No layer is a standalone buy or sell command.
Channel formula
ln(price) = a + b × ln(days since 3 January 2009). Eight colored zones are bounded by the 1%, 8%, 20%, 35%, 50%, 65%, 80%, 92% and 99% quantiles of historical log residuals.
Model limitation
The channel is refitted as new observations arrive and uses history retrospectively. It is useful as long-cycle context, but it is not a standalone point-in-time backtest and does not predict an exact top.