What the chart shows
The colored zones use a regression of ln(price) on ln(days since Bitcoin launched). Boundaries are fixed residual quantiles from all available daily history, not hand-drawn bands.
How to interpret it
Price position in the channel describes its long-run deviation from the power-law trend. MA200D and MA200W show trend structure, while convergence of the 111DMA and 2 × 350DMA marks the historical Pi Cycle Top condition. No layer is a standalone buy or sell command.
Channel formula
ln(price) = a + b × ln(days since 3 January 2009). Eight colored zones are bounded by the 1%, 8%, 20%, 35%, 50%, 65%, 80%, 92% and 99% quantiles of historical log residuals.
Model limitation
The channel is refitted as new observations arrive and uses history retrospectively. It is useful as long-cycle context, but it is not a standalone point-in-time backtest and does not predict an exact top.